Remarks by President Dudley at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.

The global recession of 2008-09 led to monetary and fiscal policy responses by central banks and government authorities that were often unconventional in size and scope. A study of expansionary measures employed during the recession suggests that overall, the policies were likely effective in...

Remarks by President Dudley at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.

We show that professional forecasters have essentially no ability to predict future recessions a few quarters ahead. This is particularly puzzling because, for at least the past two decades, researchers have provided much evidence that the yield curve, specifically the spread between long- and...

This article surveys recent research on the usefulness of the term spread (i.e., the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) for predicting changes in economic activity. Most studies use linear regression techniques to forecast changes in output or...

The sharp slowdown in housing and the inverted yield curve have led to concerns that the odds of a recession have risen. For instance, Dow Jones Newswire reported on November 2 that one model based on the yield curve put the probability of a recession over the next four quarters at more than...

Remarks before the Austin Headliners Club, Austin, Texas, November 10, 2009 ; "The Federal Reserve has done what it can to prevent Depression 2.0 and the deflation that one would have expected might accompany economic collapse. It will take some time, in my opinion, to get back on a steady...

Since the 1970s, an inverted yield curve has been a reliable signal of an imminent recession. One interpretation of this signal is that markets expect monetary policy to ease as the Federal Reserve responds to an upcoming deterioration in economic conditions. Some have argued that the yield...

Remarks before the Austin Headliners Club, Austin, Texas, November 10, 2009 ; "The Federal Reserve has done what it can to prevent Depression 2.0 and the deflation that one would have expected might accompany economic collapse. It will take some time, in my opinion, to get back on a steady...