Presented at the Annual Dealmakers Event, San Diego, California.

Delivered at the High Profile Speaker Series, New York Society of Security Analysts, New York City. November 8, 2010.

Presented at the Annual Dealmakers Event, San Diego, California.

This article decomposes U.S. GDP into components associated with major macroeconomic disturbances in order to identify the likely causes of the 1990 recession. Four types of disturbances--aggregate supply, aggregate spending, money demand and money supply--are identified in the empirical...

Delivered at the High Profile Speaker Series, New York Society of Security Analysts, New York City. November 8, 2010.

Delivered at the High Profile Speaker Series, New York Society of Security Analysts, New York City. November 8, 2010.

During the last recession, credit flows suffered their worst slowdown since World War II. A look at selected credit market measures gives some insight into why the slowdown was so severe. The measures also show that in spite of the size of the shock, credit flows actually recovered extremely...