A large literature studies the information contained in national-level economic indicators, such as financial and aggregate economic activity variables, for forecasting U.S. business cycle phases (expansions and recessions.) In this paper, we investigate whether there is additional information...

That men are losing jobs at a much faster rate than women during this recession shouldn't be a surprise. The pattern is typical. And it's not just the men in the hard hats who are out of a job - men in almost all categories of work are being affected disproportionately.

The burdens of a recession are not spread evenly across demographic groups. As the public and media noticed, from the start of the current recession in December 2007 through June 2009 men accounted for more than three-quarters of net job losses. Other differences have garnered less attention but...

This paper examines and compares the recent business cycle experiences of the seven states that lie partly or wholly within the Eighth Federal Reserve District (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee). For the period surrounding the 1990-91 NBER recession,...

The burdens of a recession are not spread evenly across demographic groups. The public and media, for example, noticed that, from the start of the current recession in December 2007 through June 2009, men accounted for more than three quarters of net job losses. Other differences have garnered...

This paper estimates the dynamics of the personal-bankruptcy rate over the business cycle by exploiting large cross-state variation. We find that bankruptcy rates are significantly higher than normal during a recession and rise as a recession persists. After a recession ends, there is a hangover...

This paper estimates the dynamics of the personal-bankruptcy rate over the business cycle by exploiting large cross-state variation. We find that bankruptcy rates are significantly above trend during a recession and rise as a recession persists. After a recession ends, there is a hangover...