Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

The paper presents a model of a risk-averse exporting firm under exchange rate risk. We focus on the economic implications of basis risk. It is shown that the regression dependence assumptions between spot and futures exchange rates are essential in analyzing optimal hedging and export...