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Business climate indicators are used to receive early signals for turning points in the general business cycle. Therefore methods for the detection of turning points in time series are required. Estimations of slopes of a smooth component in the data can be calculated with local polynomial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011450892
This paper discusses nonparametric kernel regression with the regressor being a d-dimensional ß-null recurrent process in presence of conditional heteroscedasticity. We show that the mean function estimator is consistent with convergence rate p n(T)hd, where n(T) is the number of regenerations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011297654
The persistence properties of economic time series has been a primary object of investigation in a variety of guises … since the early days of econometrics. This paper suggests investigating the persistence of processes conditioning on their … its lags maybe a useful indicator of the variation in persistence with respect to its past history. We discuss in detail …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014099012
(Panel) Smooth Transition Regressions substantially gained in popularity due to their flexibility in modeling regression coefficients as homogeneous or heterogeneous functions of transition variables. In the estimation process, however, researchers typically face a trade-off in the sense that a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011749886
In this paper we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning and highdimensional models for time series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear alternatives. Among the linear methods we pay special attention to penalized regressions and ensemble of models. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012390030
A large literature on persistence finds that many modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places … strategies tend to perform no better than naive regressions. Although the focus here is on historical persistence, the methods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285404
In econometrics some nonparametric instrumental regression models and nonparametric demand models with endogeneity lead to nonlinear integral equations with unknown integral kernels. We prove convergence rates of the risk for the iteratively regularized Newton method applied to these problems....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392754
We consider theoretical bootstrap "coupling" techniques for nonparametric robust smoothers and quantile regression, and verify the bootstrap improvement. To cope with curse of dimensionality, a variant of "coupling" bootstrap techniques are developed for additive models with both symmetric error...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010195959
In this paper we consider nonparametric estimation of a structural equation model under full additivity constraint. We propose estimators for both the conditional mean and gradient which are consistent, asymptotically normal, oracle efficient and free from the curse of dimensionality. Monte...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010350365
This paper proposes several tests of restricted specification in nonparametric instrumental regression. Based on series estimators, test statistics are established that allow for tests of the general model against a parametric or nonparametric specification as well as a test of exogeneity of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489959