This paper proposes a methodology for default probability estimation for low default portfolios, where the statistical inference may become troublesome. The author suggests using logistic regression models with the Bayesian estimation of parameters. The piecewise logistic regression model and...

Credit risk measurement and management become more important in all financial institutions in the light of the current financial crisis and the global recession. This particularly applies to most of the complex structured financing forms whose risk cannot be quantified with com-mon rating...

In many economic applications, the variate of interest is non-negative and its distribution is characterized by a mass-point at zero and a long right-tail. Many regression strategies have been proposed to deal with data of this type. Although there has been a long debate in the literature on the...

This paper studies the robust estimation and inference of threshold models with integrated regres- sors. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the profiled least squares (LS) estimator under the diminishing threshold effect assumption that the size of the threshold effect converges to zero....

In this paper we use Monte Carlo testing techniques for testing linearity against the smooth transition models. The Monte Carlo approach allows us to introduce a new test that differs from the tests existing in the literature in two respects. First, the test is exact in the sense that the...

We develop a non-dynamic panel smooth transition regression model with fixed individual effects. The model is useful for describing heterogenous panels, with regression coefficients that vary across individuals and over time. Heterogeneity is allowed for by assuming that these coefficients are...

We develop a method of testing linearity using power transforms of regressors, allowing for stationary processes and time trends. The linear model is a simplifying hypothesis that derives from the power transform model in three different ways, each producing its own identification problem. We...

Consider the nonparametric regression model Y = m(X)+e, where the function m is smooth, but unknown. We construct tests for the independence of e and X, based on n independent copies of (X; Y). The testing procedures are based on differences of neighboring Y's. We establish asymptotic results...

Consider the location-scale regression model Y = m(X)+o(X), where the error e is independent of the covariate X, and m and o are smooth but unknown functions.We construct tests for the validity of this model and show that the asymptotic limits of the proposed test statistics are distribution...

Algorithms used to detect outliers in regression models have a positive probability of finding outliers even when the data generation process has no outliers. We propose two sets of tests for the overall presence of outliers based on the false-discovery rate of outliers. First, `simple' tests on...