Extended logistic regression is a recent ensemble calibration method that extends logistic regression to provide full continuous probability distribution forecasts. It assumes conditional logistic distributions for the (transformed) predictand and fits these using selected predictand category...

To achieve well calibrated probabilistic forecasts, ensemble forecasts often need to be statistically post-processed. One recent ensemble-calibration method is extended logistic regression which extends the popular logistic regression to yield full probability distribution forecasts. Although...

Non-homogeneous regression is often used to statistically post-process ensemble forecasts. Usually only ensemble forecasts of the predictand variable are used as input but other potentially useful information sources are ignored. Although it is straightforward to add further input variables,...

Statistical post-processing of ensemble predictions is usually adjusted to a particular lead time so that several models must be fitted to forecast multiple lead times. To increase the coherence between lead times, we propose to use standardized anomalies instead of direct observations and...

Raw ensemble forecasts display large errors in predicting precipitation amounts and its forecast uncertainty, especially in mountainous regions where local e.ects are often not captured. Therefore, statistical post-processing is typically applied to obtain automatically corrected weather...

To post-process ensemble predictions to a particular location, often statistical methods are used, especially in complex terrain such as the Alps. When expanded to several stations, the post-processing has to be repeated at every station individually thus losing information about spatial...

Non-homogeneous regression models are widely used to statistically post-process numerical ensemble weather prediction models. Such regression models are capable of forecasting full probability distributions and correct for ensemble errors in the mean and variance. To estimate the corresponding...

We show how the rootogram - a graphical tool associated with the work of J. W. Tukey and originally used for assessing goodness of fit of univariate distributions - can help to diagnose and treat issues such as overdispersion and/or excess zeros in regression models for count data. Two empirical...

The R package partykit provides a flexible toolkit for learning, representing, summarizing, and visualizing a wide range of tree-structured regression and classification models. The functionality encompasses: (a) basic infrastructure for representing trees (inferred by any algorithm) so that...