Causality tests developed by Sims and Granger are fatally flawed for several reasons First, when two variables, X and Y, are uncorrelated, X has no linear predictive value for Y, but X,and Y may be nonlinearly related unless they are statistically Independent, In which case X and Y are not...

Data limitations often limit the time framework in which agricultural commodities are modeled and prices forecasted. Our research provides a technique to alleviate this constraint. By combining an annual econometric model with a quarterly ARIMA model, quarterly forecasts can be made which...

This paper uses the Pagano-Hartley procedure to estimate the lag length and polynomial degree for the case of a quarterly hog supply equation. The results show that the nicely humped shapes which materialize when using the Almon lag may be caused by the failure in accounting for autocorrelation...