Decision analysis, the practice of Bernoullian decision theory and Bayesian statistics, is reviewed in relation to its application in management. Aspects of the scaling of beliefs (probabilities) and preferences (utilities) are discussed, focussing on practical problems. It is concluded that the...

To concentrate on treating the most serious risks, methods of business risk management usually seek to identify the main risks and to assess their relative importance. Risks are typically assessed in terms of their chances of occurrence and the severity of their consequences. The assessments may...

A version of multiattribute utility theory is evaluated as an aid to social decision making using an Australian case study. A multiattribute utility function is assessed over the descriptive, discrete decision alternatives of the decision problem rather than over the risky consequences of the...

Often analysts must conduct risk analysis based on a small number of observations. This paper describes and illustrates the use of a kernel density estimation procedure to smooth out irregularities in such a sparse data set for simulating univariate and multivariate probability distributions.

The concept of stochastic dominance is described and its use is illustrated in relation to the evaluation of the output of a systems simulation model of lucerne haymaking in south-west Spain. Two alternative machinery systems are ranked for various lucerne areas using the criteria of stochastic...

Evaluating the risk of a particular decision depends on the risk aversion of the decision maker related to the underlying utility function. The objective of this paper is to use stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to compare the ranking of risky alternatives using alternative...

Growth in agriculture depends on many things but one of the most important is investment in agricultural research. Decision making in the agricultural research policy area can only be aided by access to better information. This article overviews a recent endeavor to move policy dialogue beyond...