We quantify crash risk in currency returns. To accomplish this task, we develop and estimate an empirical model of exchange rate dynamics using daily data for four currencies relative to the US dollar: the Australian dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen. The model...

To what extent are currency crashes linked to sovereign defaults? Measuring their relationship is notoriously difficult because these are rare disaster events. I take a novel approach. I learn about the risk-neutral distribution of rare currency crushes from prices of far out-of-the-money (FOM)...

Market participants' risk attitudes, wealth and portfolio composition influence their positions in a pegged foreign currency and, therefore, may have important effects on the sustainability of currency pegs. We analyze such effects in a global game model of currency crises with continuous action...

We analyze the effect of risk aversion, wealth and portfolios on the behavior of investors in a global game model of currency crises with continuous action choices. The model generates a rich set of striking theoretical predictions. For example, risk aversion makes currency crises significantly...

Carry returns have been widely observed in the FX market. This study exploits the common information embedded in several factors previously identified as relevant to carry trade returns. We find that the extracted common factor successfully models the time series and cross-sectional...

We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure of...