The beta dispersion, which is the spread of betas on a stock market, can be interpreted as a measure of market vulnerability. This study examines the economic idea of the beta dispersion and its application as a market return predictor. Based on the empirical beta dispersion observed in the US...

This study proposes a novel expectile regression complete subset averaging (ECSA) method to forecast the downside risk for asset returns. Given a high-dimensional set of covariates, we combine the forecasts from a complete subset of expectile regression models that use a fixed number of...