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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059527
In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of the effect of uncertainty on fertility. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We use a new measure of uncertainty, the World Uncertainty Index, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012152216
In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012508583
"This paper examines the movements of the Distance to Default (DD), a market-based measure of corporate default risk, of eight failed Japanese banks in order to evaluate the predictive power of the DD measure for bank failures. The DD became smaller in anticipation of failure in many cases. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003990927
This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the unforecastable component of a large number of economic indicators. Our estimates display significant independent variations from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075857
This paper provides a new index of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The index measures the dispersion of forecasts resulting from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226308
This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831182
In this paper, we introduce a new US uncertainty index which is more sensitive to consumer spending and therefore reflects households’ decisions. We find evidence that macroeconomic uncertainty shocks impose negative, statistically significant, and long-lasting effects on consumption, income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322199
The preliminary evidence in the literature suggests that changes in uncertainty have a role in shaping the U.S. economic cycle. But what is effectively measured by the different available indicators of uncertainty still remains an "uncertain" issue. This paper has two aims: (i) to introduce a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011705516
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012317759