The real options tradition originally predicted a decreasing relationship between uncertainty and investment, through the positive effect of higher uncertainty on the trigger level for revenue relative to costs. An opposing effect on the probability of reaching the level has been identified,...

Due to differences in the effectiveness and side effects of different drugs, uncertainty is an important component of prescription drug choice. This uncertainty can cause patients and doctors to experiment with different drugs until they find a good match. In this paper, we specify and estimate...

Using equations that arise in quantum mechanics, this paper describes a way to more accurately and efficiently represent non-Gaussian return distributions than the standard method of invoking skewness and kurtosis. Then, it provides a new single intuitive number, defined here as the “crash...

In this paper we show how risk-averse reinforcement learning can be used to hedge options. We apply a state-of-the-art risk-averse algorithm: Trust Region Volatility Optimization (TRVO) to a vanilla option hedging environment, considering realistic factors such as discrete time and transaction...

We introduce a new method of optimising the accuracy and time taken to calculate risk for a complex trading book, focusing on the use case of XVA. We dynamically choose the number of paths and time discretisation to target computational effort on calculations that give the most information in...

As common practice, oil studies in the economic literature are carried out by taking the correct specification of a model as given, and ignoring the problem of estimating overly optimistic confidence sets. This means that model uncertainty is pervasive in the empirical results. In this work I...

The correlation is a big modelling problem, "One of the most interesting in the Equity World". In the last decade, correlation products became very popular and attractive. The demand for a number of exotic products like dispersion trades, worst of, rainbows, correlation swaps, corridor option on...

In this paper, expected utility, defined by a Taylor series expansion around expected wealth, is maximized. The coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA) that is commensurate with a 100% investment in the risky asset is simulated. The following parameters are varied: the riskless return, the...