We characterize and measure a long-term risk-return trade-off for the valuation of cash flows exposed to fluctuations in macroeconomic growth. This trade-off features risk prices of cash flows that are realized far into the future but continue to be reflected in asset values. We apply this...

We develop an intertemporal asset pricing model where cash flow news, discount rate news, and their second moments are priced by the market. This model generalizes the market return decomposition framework, showing that intertemporal considerations imply a decomposition of squared market returns...

Stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility perform poorly relative to low idiosyncratic volatility stocks. We offer a novel explanation of this anomaly based on real options, which is consistent with earlier findings on idiosyncratic volatility (the positive contemporaneous relation between...

We examine whether sensitivities to cash flow (CF) and discount rate (DR) risk in down markets provide an explanation for the investment effect, where low-investment stocks earn higher expected returns than high-investment stocks. We show how productivity and financing constraints asymmetrically...

Realized returns comprise (ex-ante) expected returns plus (ex-post) innovations, and consequently both expected returns and returns innovations can be broken down into components reflecting fluctuations in cash flow (CF) and discount rate (DR). I use a present-value model to identify the CF and...

The equity term structure is downward sloping at long maturities. I show, through an ICAPM estimation, that the tradeoff between market and reinvestment risk explains this pattern. Intuitively, while long-term dividend claims are highly exposed to market risk, they are also good hedges for...

I construct a measure of cash flow duration at the firm level and link it to carbon emissions of the same firm. Firms with higher carbon emissions generate their cash flows in the near term, reflecting that long-term cash flows are relatively more exposed to transitional climate risks. This...