The paper develops a model for combining point forecasts into a predictive distribution for a variable of interest. Our approach allows for point forecasts to be correlated and admits uncertainty on the distribution parameters given the forecasts. Further, it provides an easy way to compute an...

We examine how different characteristics of product demand and market impact the relative sales volume in the forward and spot markets for a commodity whose aggregate demand is uncertain. In a setting where either the forward contracts are binding quantity commitments between buyers and...