Regulatory capital for trading book positions includes two components that cover different risks but apply to the same portfolio, one for market risk and one for credit risk. Similar approaches are common in banks’ internal models for economic capital. Although it is known that joint market...

This paper incorporates uncertainties of model risk in a stress scenario for house prices. Our approach consists of mapping the Gaussian (or other alternative) distribution quantiles to the quantiles of the empirical distribution using a statistical criterion. The mapping corrects for the...

• Scenario planning can mitigate losses, increase market expansion, prevent business regional exit and maximise profits.• Global banks must form partnerships with local and Islamic banks in global markets to utilize local expertise, acceptance and success.• Businesses operating in...

Gradient capital allocation, also known as Euler allocation, is a technique used to redistribute diversified capital requirements among different segments of a portfolio. The method is commonly employed to identify dominant risks, assessing the risk-adjusted profitability of segments, and...

In response to a growing awareness of the potential impact of climate change on financial stability, academics, financial institutions (FIs), central banks and supervisors (CB&S) have developed a suite of scenarios and analytical tools to assess forward-looking climate-related financial risks,...

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market - rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities - led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is benign, but when they occur...

We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a realtime subjective measure of uncertainty...

Did the increase in counterparty risk perception in the interbank market since autumn 2007 contribute to the severe contraction of the US economy? To address this question we introduce interbank market uncertainty in a DSGE model with frictional financial intermediation. Interbank uncertainty is...

We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals and other estimates of uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts of key macroeconomic variables. Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial...

Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean...