Based on a new survey question in a large and representative panel of German firms, this paper introduces a novel measure of managers' subjective uncertainty. I compare this measure of business uncertainty to respondents' business expectations and document a strong negative relationship....

In this paper we use the property that certainty equivalence, as implied by a first-order approximation to the solution of stochastic discrete-time models, breaks in its equivalent continuous-time version. We study the extent to which a first-order approximated solution built by perturbation...

In this paper we use the property that certainty equivalence, as implied by a first-order approximation to the solution of stochastic discrete-time models, breaks in its equivalent continuous-time version. We study the extent to which a first-order approximated solution built by perturbation...

In this paper we use the property that certainty equivalence, as implied by a first-order approximation to the solution of stochastic discrete-time models, breaks in its equivalent continuous-time version. We study the extent to which a first-order approximated solution built by perturbation...

This paper studies the extent to which working couples can insure one another against cyclical fluctuations in the labor market and examines the implications of joint household decision-making for cyclical fluctuations in the unemployment rate. For this purpose, I provide a dynamic life-cycle...

Uncertainty is a complex and “multilayered” object of multidisciplinary research. However, such concepts as “fundamental uncertainty”, “ambiguity”, “probability” and “risk” are common and universal. For a long time in economic theory, the problem of uncertainty remained, as...

The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We document this by proposing a novel news media-based measure of climate...

The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We document this by proposing a novel news media-based measure of climate...

The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We document this by proposing a novel news media-based measure of climate...

This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers' expected...