and uncertainty shocks. Voting for Brexit had large negative effects on the UK economy between 2016 and 2019, leading to …

react differently to changes in political uncertainty and economic variables. While import flows are more rigid and do not …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … uncertainty as well as disagreement among CPI inflation forecasters to account for different dimensions of uncertainty. Based on a … uncertainty and disagreement among exchange rate forecasters and identify a strong relationship between them. …

increases strengthen these currencies to different extents. In contrast, heightened geopolitical uncertainty and associated oil …

of global macroeconomic uncertainty - is a factor that is robustly priced in currency excess returns. A widening of the …

We develop a measure of static misallocation that separates uncertainty from misallocation generated by tax …-like distortions. In the Finnish firm-level data, uncertainty accounts for the majority of ex post misallocation and explains a strong … implies idiosyncratic distortions, in line with our accounting approach. According to our quantitative results, uncertainty …

-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated … informed. Moreover, young firms tend to wait long before entering or exiting the market faced with high uncertainty about their …

We show how real and financial frictions amplify, prolong and propagate the impact of uncertainty shocks. We first use … a novel instrumentation strategy to address endogeneity in estimating the impact of uncertainty, by exploiting … than unconstrained firms following an uncertainty shock. We then build a model with real and financial frictions. We show …

indicators to guide monetary policy decisions. However, these gaps are estimated with a large margin of uncertainty, especially … when composed mainly of TFP gaps. Given the high uncertainty of output gap estimates at present, monetary policy should put … of underlying fiscal balances being reasonably robust to output gap uncertainty. …