This paper studies the effect of pre-election polls on the participation decision of citizens in a large, two …-candidate election, and the resulting incentives for the poll participants. Citizens have private values and voting is costly and … candidate wins the election almost surely, regardless of voters' posterior beliefs. …

create doubt about scientific information, we use a signaling model of interest-group lobbying in which the policymaker has … persuasion to imply that the NGO may be a radical extremist whose lobbying is not credible. The second involves the creation of a …

year of a gubernatorial election, the elasticity of investment to the eventual margin of victory is 0.027. Both the …

We document that postwar U.S. elections show a strong pattern of "incumbency disadvantage": If a party has held the … election. We show that this fact can be explained by a combination of policy inertia and unpredictability in election outcomes …

I develop a model of strategic entry by candidates for office in runoff elections under aggregate uncertainty. I … election, and a Condorcet losing candidate wins with positive probability. Finally, some candidates who reach the second round … data from Italian municipal elections …

elections. The response is mainly promoted by representatives in safe districts, those with more experience, and those with …

macro uncertainty rises during close elections. These are events which are likely to lead to macro uncertainty but are … countries and that the real effects of macro uncertainty shocks are generally larger conditioning on close elections. These …

competed in open-list local council elections (1996-2020) in Bavaria. The 2020 elections took place at the dawn of the Covid-19 …