Using an NPV-based revealed-preference strategy, I find that idiosyncratic risk materially affects the discount rate that firms use in their capital budgeting decisions. I exploit quasi-exogenous within-region variation in project-specific idiosyncratic risk and find that, on average, firms...

We study business uncertainty in high- versus low-volatility environments by surveying over 31,000 managers across 41 countries. We elicit subjective probability distributions for future own-firm sales and measure firm-level uncertainty with their mean absolute deviations. Analogously, we...

The regulatory use of banks' internal models makes capital requirements more risk-sensitive but invites regulatory arbitrage. I develop a framework to study bank regulation with strategic selection of risk models. A bank supervisor can discourage arbitrage by auditing risk models, and implements...

Purpose: Operational risks appear as the main threats of the modern world. Mistakes made by employees, an imperfect information systems or changes in the law can cause losses that businesses today are not even able to estimate. Therefore, in the face of widespread the asymmetry of information,...

I develop a dynamic agency model of financial contracting, where borrowing constraints appear as part of the optimal contract. The novelty of the paper relative to previous work is that volatility is stochastic and exogenous to the agent behavior. A line of credit appears in the optimal long...

An issuer, privately informed about the distribution of the project's cash flows, raises financing from an uninformed investor through a security sale. The investor faces Knightian uncertainty about the distribution of cash flows and evaluates each security by the worst-case distribution at...

According to recent surveys, most companies use discounted-cash-flow (DCF) methods to evaluate capital budgeting decisions. DCF methods typically assume that a project's initial cash outlay (ICO) is known with certainty. However, many types of initial outlays have substantial uncertainty,...

Let us suppose that presently unimagined is possible, that “the unexpected may happen” (Marshall, 1920, p. 347). Then “human decisions affecting the future, whether personal, political or economic, cannot depend on strict mathematical expectation since the basis for making such...

The effects of sentiment should be strongest during times of heightened valuation uncertainty. As such, we document a significant amplifying role for market uncertainty in the relation between sentiment and aggregate investment. A one-standard-deviation increase in uncertainty more than doubles...