Expert elicitations are frequently used to characterize future technology outcomes. However their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and over-confidence is a persistent...

We construct downside variance risk premiums from the crude oil and gold option data and use them as proxies for market downside uncertainty risks. We find that these downside variance risk premiums contain commodity market specifc pricing information. Further- more, the gold market's exposure...

In organized energy markets that use locational pricing, power generators and energy suppliers procure Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs) to hedge against grid congestion charges, while third party speculators attempt to capture a return with these extremely volatile contracts. The paper...

This paper investigates the oil market reaction to its fundamental shocks: supply, aggregate demand and oil-specific demand in different regimes characterised by high versus low uncertainty in the market. We do so by first proposing a novel oil uncertainty index that is measured by the...

With the introduction of the exchange-traded German wind power futures, opportunities for German wind power producers to hedge their volumetric risk are present. We propose two continuous-time multivariate models for the wind power utilization at different wind sites, and discuss the properties...

In times of uncertainties scenarios offer a solution. Starting with Royal Dutch Shell by the late 1960s, corporate scenarios are intended to challenge managers’ “personal microcosms” and to reflect the present and the past, before structuring the uncertainties of the future. Therefore,...

This report looks at the most important uncertain details of climate change mitigation policy, depicts the dispersion of implementation details in existing policy proposals, assesses which ones will have greater cost impacts, and then describes the type of scenarios that could have major direct...

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks...

The rapid worldwide growth of renewable energy has been largely underpinned by government support over the past decade. The need for subsidy is fading as the cost of electricity from renewables converges with that from fossil fuels, but the withdrawal of support schemes will also remove the...

The opposition in a number of countries to the inclusion of nuclear energy in a sustainable energy portfolio, in part due to the dread of what the “nuclear” word inspires, has limited quantitative scientific foundation of the real benefits and risks. This has been amplified by the lack of a...