We construct measures of individual forecasters' subjective uncertainty at horizons ranging from one to five years … uncertainty curve is more linear than the disagreement curve --- uncertainty at the one-year and two-year horizons can almost … perfectly predict uncertainty at the five-year horizon, but not so for disagreement. We document substantial heterogeneity …

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and … inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by decreasing output growth and increasing inflation and … real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i …

This paper is first attempt to measure and analyze inflation uncertainty in Pakistan and it provides several … contributions. Using quarterly data from 1976:01 to 2008:02, at first stage we model inflation uncertainty as time varying process … through GARCH framework. At second stage asymmetric behavior of inflation uncertainty is analyzed by using GJR-GARCH and …

need to correct the estimation of indicators of economic uncertainty. The indicators were constructed from textual data … Monetary Policy of eighteen Central Banks, we estimated two variables of perception of economic uncertainty: the first using … perception of economic uncertainty; this effect acts as an accelerator that potentiates its impact. It was evident that …

implementation of Muth’s hypothesis to represent market participants’ inflation expectations under Knightian uncertainty arising from … that processes driving inflation time-series and inflation forecasts undergo nonrecurring structural shifts. In contrast to …

Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2003 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are …

We investigate the international linkages of inflation uncertainty in the G7. In a first step, we document that … inflation uncertainty in the G7 is intertwined. Moreover, the degree of synchronization has increased during the recent two … international shock that drives national inflation uncertainty and which is closely related to oil and commodity price uncertainty …

We investigate the international linkages of inflation uncertainty in the G7. In a first step, we document that … inflation uncertainty in the G7 is intertwined. Moreover, the degree of synchronization has increased during the recent two … international shock that drives national inflation uncertainty and which is closely related to oil and commodity price uncertainty …

This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a … structural threshold VAR model, we endogenously identify different regimes of uncertainty in which we estimate the effects of oil … demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial …