We construct measures of individual forecasters' subjective uncertainty at horizons ranging from one to five years … uncertainty curve is more linear than the disagreement curve --- uncertainty at the one-year and two-year horizons can almost … perfectly predict uncertainty at the five-year horizon, but not so for disagreement. We document substantial heterogeneity …

This paper studies how strategic complementarities generated by real rigidities affect the propagation of uncertainty … uncertainty shocks are cardinally different. In particular, firm-specific inputs strengthen the contractionary impact of … uncertainty shocks by amplifying the upward pricing channel. With the Kimbal aggregator, on the contrary, firms bias their pricing …

surrounded by considerable uncertainty. When quantifying the impact of this uncertainty on theoretical inflation, I find that we …Recent studies by Gali and Gertler (1999) and Sbordone (2002) conclude that a theoretical inflation series implied by … the forward-looking New Keynesian pricing model of Calvo (1983) fits post-1960 U.S. inflation closely. Their theoretical …

The positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is well supported by empirical evidence in the … literature. However, this does not answer the question of whether the inflation causes the inflation uncertainty and vice versa … inflation uncertainty cause each other for the monthly data from 1962:02 to 2002:09 …

indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) inflation tail risk. We … estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk …

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and … inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by decreasing output growth and increasing inflation and … real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i …

domestic shocks. The results suggest that shipping cost uncertainty shocks have sizeable effects on all inflation measures and … affect significantly core CPI inflation. These findings imply that shipping cost mean and uncertainty should also be … paper first provides shipping cost mean and uncertainty measures by using the endogenous regime switching model with dynamic …

In this paper, we evaluate the causal relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty indices, inflation and growth rate … we find little evidence of a causal relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic variables. Thus, macroeconomic … analysis based on uncertainty indices should be treated with caution …