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This paper describes a business cycle model where financial contracting with interrelated covenants is the mechanism by which bondholders and stockholders confront the risks associated with future production-investment decisions and financing decisions of the firm and in the process resolves a...
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equally reliable experts. We then apply our results to the theory of risk measures. Our application can be viewed as a …
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year of a gubernatorial election, the elasticity of investment to the eventual margin of victory is 0.027. Both the …
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Many countries are experiencing persistent, weak medium-term growth and limited fiscal space. Against this background, economic policy agendas-in both advanced and developing economies-are focusing increasingly on structural reforms. While there is broad agreement on the economic benefits of...
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This paper documents that surprise election outcomes - measured as deviations between realised vote shares and expected … vote shares based on a newly constructed dataset of opinion polls and party and candidate vote shares close to election day … higher surprise is associated with a 0.37 percentage point lower year-on-year growth rate one year after the election. These …
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