election, and a Condorcet losing candidate wins with positive probability. Finally, some candidates who reach the second round …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …

(P/E) during US presidential election cycles. We document evidence over six elections, that as the probable winner of the … election becomes clearer, markets surprisingly respond with decreases in P/E ratios. We consider that our results are … results should be of great interest to researchers concerned with market reaction to election cycles, public policy, and the …

framework, this paper examines the impactof the 2016 US presidential election (henceforth Trump election) on US stock market as … strong evidence that theTrump election has increased the level/trend and lowered the volatility of S&P 500 index inboth ex …