Three previous crises in Russia were different, the crisis outbreak also has its sectoral and spatial features. Employment risks are the highest in the sectors of market related services (over 10 million employees). High risks in unemployment are immanent to federal cities and regions with...

This paper develops a forward-looking indicator for macroeconomic uncertainty that employers are confronted with when they take decisions about the size of their workforce. The model that provides the basis for this uncertainty indicator interprets hires and lay-off s of workers as an investment...

In this paper we present and confront the expected outcome of an increase in risk on the regional or sectoral allocation of labor force and employment. The basic frameworks are the benchmark dualistic scenarios. A single-input analysis of a homogeneous product economy is provided. Uncertainty is...

Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an increasingly important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy and offer an alternative channel of uncertainty - data uncertainty. This paper adds on...

The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE). This measure, however, has the major drawback that it is constant over time and hence...