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This paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for stabilizing expectations. Because of … learning dynamics, uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy is shown to restrict, relative to a rational expectations … analysis, the set of policies consistent with macroeconomic stability. Anchoring expectations by communicating about monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138712
Cross-country estimates of Taylor rules suggest that higher data uncertainty is associated with a more inertial behavior of interest rates. Data uncertainty is measured by the volatility of differences between real-time data and their revisions. Using a simple structural model with Kalman filter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242211
examine a purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve with heterogeneous expectations, where the coordination of … is allowed to vary, there exist multiple equilibria: rational expectations equilibrium without any inertia and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014208104
. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty … exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This … inflation expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034114
signals and, as a consequence, may increase uncertainty and amplify the reaction of expectations to macroeconomic news …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872234
less correlated with policy uncertainty, possibly reflecting stronger anchoring of inflation expectations for this group …. Policy uncertainty appears to reflect the expectations of consumers more than professional forecasters or financial markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012990743
This paper investigates the impact of ECB communication of its assessment of the economic outlook on ex-ante inflation uncertainty and sheds light on how central bank information shocks operate. The paper finds that ECB communication of new outlook information not only reduces professional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012603073
We study and measure uncertainty in the minutes of the meetings of the board of governors of the Central Bank of Mexico and relate it to monetary policy variables. In particular, we construct two uncertainty indices for the Spanish version of the minutes using unsupervised machine learning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076959
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010424351
Large differences in national price levels exist across countries. In this paper, I develop a general equilibrium model predicting that these differences should be related to countries' exchange rate regimes. My empirical findings confirm that countries with fixed exchange rate regimes have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014056764