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Predictable Risks and Predictive Regression in Present-Value Models
Piatti, Ilaria - 2017
Using a latent variables approach, we estimate the dynamics of dividends and returns in a tractable present-value model with time-varying risks. Expected returns imply a similar return predictability as under homoskedasticity, while expected dividend growth is more persistent and explains a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012976115
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Uncertainty and forecasts of U.S. recessions
Pierdzioch, Christian; Gupta, Rangan - In: Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics : SNDE ; … 24 (2020) 4, pp. 1-21
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299545
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Can financial uncertainty forecast aggregate stock market returns?
Henry, Ólan Thomas John; Kerestecioglu, Semih; Pybis, Sam - In: Financial markets, institutions & instruments 33 (2024) 2, pp. 91-111
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014532257
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Forecasting energy prices : quantile-based risk models
Apergēs, Nikolaos - In: Journal of forecasting 42 (2023) 1, pp. 17-33
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013465758
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The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts
Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert - 2016
This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532311
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A note on uncertainty due to infectious diseases and output growth of the United States : a mixed-frequency forecasting experiment
Salisu, Afees A.; Gupta, Rangan; Demirer, Rıza - In: Annals of financial economics 17 (2022) 2, pp. 1-9
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013262971
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Allocating and forecasting changes in risk
Gaigall, Daniel - In: Journal of risk 25 (2023) 3, pp. 1-24
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014283880
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Allocating and forecasting changes in risk
Gaigall, Daniel - In: Journal of risk : JOR 25 (2023) 3, pp. 1-24
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014487054
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A regression surprise resolved
Lillestøl, Jostein (contributor);  … - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003756900
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The relation between overreaction in forecasts and uncertainty : a nonlinear approach
Leppin, Julian Sebastian - 2014 - This version: November 2014
account impacts from oil price return and oil price volatility on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression … of Professional Forecasters. The results show that forecast changes are governed by overreaction. However, overreaction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010438928