Based on a stylised financial system along with a systemic perspective thereof, we consider the structure of an aggregated banking system that is vulnerable to liquidity risks. Within this setup, a consistent mathematical modelling framework for term interest rate systems is derived that enables...

We find that interest rate variance risk premium (IRVRP) - the difference between implied and realized variances of interest rates - is a strong predictor of U.S. Treasury bond returns of maturities ranging between one and ten years for return horizons up to six months. IRVRP is not subsumed by...