I develop a model of strategic entry by candidates for office in runoff elections under aggregate uncertainty. I introduce aggregate uncertainty by making candidates unsure of the distribution of voter preferences in the electorate. The set of three candidate equilibria expands and equilibrium...

We estimate the effect of electorally induced policy uncertainty on investment in the manufacturing sector. Because state governors exercise considerable influence over legislation and considerable discretion over regulation and permitting, and because the policies relevant to business...

We study the effects of political uncertainty on commodity markets from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, commodity prices and inventories decline by 6.6% and 5.7%, respectively, and convenience yields increase by 1.9% in the quarter...

We examine the impact of policy uncertainty surrounding U.S. gubernatorial elections on loan contracting outcomes. Loans made to firms headquartered in election states are more likely to include contingency-pricing provisions and financial covenants. The effect is pronounced for cash flow-based...