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Uncertainty about QE effects when an interest rate peg is anticipated
Gerke, Rafael; Giesen, Sebastian; Kienzler, Daniel - 2018
After hitting the lower bound on interest rates, the Eurosystem engaged in a public sector purchase programme (PSPP) and forward guidance (FG). We use prior and posterior predictive analysis to evaluate the importance of parameter uncertainty in an analysis of these policies. We model FG as an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846905
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Forecast uncertainty and the taylor rule
Bauer, Christian; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2015
standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation … forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512077
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Forecast Uncertainty and the Taylor Rule
Bauer, Christian - 2017
standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation … forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971856
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Complexity and monetary policy
Orphanides, Athanasios; Wieland, Volker - 2012
The complexity resulting from intertwined uncertainties regarding model misspecification and mismeasurement of the state of the economy defines the monetary policy landscape. Using the euro area as laboratory this paper explores the design of robust policy guides aiming to maintain stability in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010392194
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Precommitment, transparency and monetary policy
Geraats, Petra M. - 2001
Üblicherweise wird angenommen, dass ein Inflationsbias verschwindet, wenn sich eine Zentralbank glaubwürdig im voraus … Modell dargestellt, in dem die Zentralbank im voraus ihre Instrumente festlegt und die anschließende Anpassung der … Zeitinkonsistenzproblem mehr auftritt. Ursache ist die Unsicherheit über die ökonomischen Störungen, auf die die Zentralbank reagiert. Nur …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419400
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Precommitment, Transparency and Monetary Policy
Geraats, Petra M. - 2016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991297
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Uncertainty Shocks and Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy
Gupta, Sargam - 2020
Post great financial crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009, there has been a surge in the macroeconomics literature on aggregate uncertainty. Although the recent literature has recognized adverse real effects of global uncertainty shocks in EMEs, the role of monetary policy in mitigating these effects is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827002
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Real-time information content of macroeconomic data and uncertainty : an application to the Euro area
Glass, Katharina; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2014
Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy. This paper evaluates the quality of major real macroeconomic Euro area variables, published by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425751
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Uncertainty and Simple Monetary Policy Rules
Hall, Simon; Salmon, Chris; Yates, Anthony; Batini, … - 1999
This paper reports an investigation of the effects of additive and multiplicative uncertainty upon the stabilization properties of a simple base money rule for monetary policy. Using a five-equation empirical model of the United Kingdom, it is shown that changes in the extent of additive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014185688
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Financial Stability and Optimal Interest-Rate Policy
Ajello, Andrea - 2016
We study optimal interest-rate policy in a New Keynesian model in which the economy can experience financial crises and the probability of a crisis depends on credit conditions. The optimal adjustment to interest rates in response to credit conditions is (very) small in the model calibrated to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210437