that allows us to estimate causal effects. We find that, in a state with average partisan polarization, in the calendar … year of a gubernatorial election, the elasticity of investment to the eventual margin of victory is 0.027. Both the …

This paper documents that surprise election outcomes - measured as deviations between realised vote shares and expected … vote shares based on a newly constructed dataset of opinion polls and party and candidate vote shares close to election day … higher surprise is associated with a 0.37 percentage point lower year-on-year growth rate one year after the election. These …

This study looks at firms' investment spending in fixed and intangible assets around three types of national elections …: presidential, joint presidential, and legislative and parliamentary elections. Investments in fixed assets decline by up to 2 …% during presidential elections, and 4.44% in joint presidential, and legislative elections. On the other hand, intangible …

We document that postwar U.S. elections show a strong pattern of "incumbency disadvantage": If a party has held the … election. We show that this fact can be explained by a combination of policy inertia and unpredictability in election outcomes …