It is an undisputed fact that weather risk increases over time due to climate change. However, qualification of this statement with regard to the type of weather risk and geographical location is needed. We investigate the application of novel statistical tools for assessing changes in weather...

Define the riskiness of a gamble as the reciprocal of the absolute risk aversion (ARA) of an individual with constant ARA who is indifferent between taking and not taking that gamble. We characterize this index by axioms, chief among them a “duality” axiom which, roughly speaking, asserts...

Creating favorable conditions for the development of industry is one of the key tasks with an increased level of complexity, the solution of which is associated with attracting investments and forming an investment policy that takes into account various specific characteristics of its...

The 1990s were designated as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. Yet, almost ten years after the close of that decade, many issues remain unresolved about the nature of disasters and their impact on human beings, other life forms and the natural environment. There is the...

This paper develops new financial theory to link the third order stochastic dominance for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors and provide illustration of application in risk management. We present some interesting new properties of third order stochastic dominance (TSD) for risk-averse and...

Using leverage to magnify performance is an idea that has enticed investors and traders throughout history. The critical question of when to employ leverage and when to reduce risk, though, is not often addressed. We establish that volatility is the enemy of leverage and that streaks in...

Numerous academic studies have shown that asset allocation is the single most important determinant of portfolio returns. We accept this premise but note that an optimal asset allocation strategy must still be determined based on dynamic conditions. Using the principles of intermarket analysis...

These days it's become convention (reinforced by the media's treatment of wealth) to assess our net worth by tallying up the market value of our financial assets, even though it's more natural and useful to think of our wealth as a stream of dollars over time given the nature of our income and...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a dynamic Value at Risk model and high frequency realized volatility models can improve the accuracy of 1-day ahead VaR forecasting beyond the performance of frequently used models. As such, this paper constructs 60 conditional volatility...

This paper develops methods and a framework of financial market theory. We model financial markets as a system of agents which perform market transactions with other agents under the action of numerous expectations. Agents' expectations are formed of economic and financial variables, market...