This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the only risk measures that satisfy a set of economic axioms...

Humans play important roles in the process of quantifying uncertainty. The participation of humans in this important exercise opens the process to behavioral biases. In this paper, we examine the different types of biases that may occur when quantifying uncertainty using a process-oriented...

In this article we discuss welfare‐optimal capacity allocation of different electricity generation technologies available for serving system demand. While the classical peak load pricing theory derives the efficient portfolio structure from a deterministic marginal production cost curve...

In typical robust portfolio selection problems, one mainly finds portfolios with the worst-case return under a given uncertainty set, in which asset returns can be realized. A too large uncertainty set will lead to a too conservative robust portfolio. However, if the given uncertainty set is not...

While it is often argued that allocation decisions can be best expressed in terms of exposure to rewarded risk factors, as opposed to somewhat arbitrary asset class decompositions, the practical implications of this paradigm shift for the optimal design of the policy portfolio still remain...

Using sectorial indices of the Brazilian market, we compare the portfolio optimization approach known as risk parity with minimum variance and equally weighted approaches. We apply various estimators for the covariance matrix to each portfolio strategy, since portfolio variance is considered as...

Robustness of risk measures to changes in underlying loss distributions (distributional uncertainty) is of crucial importance when making well-informed risk management decisions. In this paper, we quantify for any given distortion risk measure its robustness to distributional uncertainty by...

Various concepts appeared in the existing literature to evaluate the risk exposure of a financial or insurance firm/subsidiary/line of business due to the occurrence of some extreme scenarios. Many of those concepts, such as Marginal Expected Shortfall or Tail Conditional Expectation, are simply...

The combination of two or more portfolio rules is theoretically convex in return-risk space, which provides for a new class of portfolio rules that gives purpose to the Mean-Variance framework out-of-sample. The author investigates the performance loss from estimation risk between the...

Factor analysis of security returns aims to decompose a return covariance matrix into systematic and specific risk components. To date, most commercially successful factor analysis has been based on fundamental models, although there is a large academic literature on statistical models. While...