We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs on risk. We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting...

We show that global political uncertainty, measured by the U.S. election cycle, on average, leads to a fall in equity returns in fifty non-U.S. countries. At the same time, market volatilities rise, local currencies depreciate, and sovereign bond returns increase. The effect of global political...

Using novel measures of politics-policy uncertainty we document predictable variation in stock market returns across countries. Country characteristics and existing global and local risk factors do not account for such predictability, leading to large abnormal returns, up to 15% per annum. We...

We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs on risk. We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting...

In recent years, several U.S. government agencies have pioneered the use of artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies to improve the efficiency and accuracy of their 'responsibility determinations' (reviews of, among other things, contractor representations and certifications,...

This paper examines the liquidity, Tobin's Q, and cost of equity effects from voluntary and mandatory IFRS adoption. In contrast to prior work, we focus on the firm level heterogeneity in the economic consequences, recognising that the level of uncertainty avoidance (UAI) in a country will...

We demonstrate the value of machine learning in accounting through a detailed examination of litigation risk, an important and frequently used estimate in the literature. We evaluate a comprehensive set of twelve machine learning techniques and benchmark their performance against the logistic...

In 2001, Nevada significantly limited the personal legal liability of corporate officers and directors. We use this exogenous shock to implement a differences-in-differences design that examines the impact of officer and director litigation risk on agency costs. We find decreased firm value,...

This study develops and validates an ex-ante measure of firm-specific overall tax risk. We define tax risk as the potential that current actions or activities, or the failure to take actions or pursue activities, will lead to future tax outcomes that are different from expectations. Tax risk...

Managers are required to disclose material climate risk (CR) in Form 10-K, but their decision whether or not to disclose is confounded by the lack of consensus on whether CR is material to the firms, as well as uncertainty about enforcement of disclosure regulations. Using the SASB Materiality...