We develop a general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous entrepreneurs produce output in the presence of financing constraints. We model granular uncertainty as the shocks that affect the uncertainty in future idiosyncratic productivity without changing the cross-sectional dispersion of...

Using the framework provided by the asymmetric-information and real-options theories, we examine the impact of uncertainty on firms' decisions and market outcomes. We construct alternative measures of uncertainty based on survey of professional forecasters and our estimation of regression-based...

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regression-based forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate...

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regression-based forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate...

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regression-based forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate...

Recent studies find that idiosyncratic risk (IR) has increased since the 1960's and attribute this to economy wide factors such as the role of the IT revolution. To gain further insights into why IR has increased over time, our paper uses industry level data and firm level data to study if...

We find that small innovators earn higher returns than small non-innovators for up to five years. We find no such innovation premium among large firms. A battery of tests shows that this innovation premium among small firms is explained by risk. Our findings, which are based on a simple measure...

Firms producing differentiated products have high margins and therefore low risk. As a result firms invest more into developing differentiated products when they perceive risk is high. Higher risk also implies higher product skewness towards more differentiated products and therefore higher...

This paper studies how expected returns interact with product market competition. The model predicts that (i) competition erodes markups, such that firms are more exposed to systematic risk; (ii) the threat of entry by new firms lowers exposure to systematic risk of incumbents; and (iii) higher...

This paper characterizes how firms' strategic interaction in product markets affects the industry dynamics of investment and expected returns. In imperfectly competitive industries, a firm's exposure to systematic risk is jointly affected by its own investment strategy and the investment...