Showing 1 - 10 of 3,065
present a model in which forecast accuracy and timing are affected by information uncertainty stemming from (i) the presence … of forecast bias and (ii) investors' limited capability to adjust to this bias. We assume that the presence of a bias is … affects the trade-off between timeliness and forecast quality. We find that the optimal forecasting time varies non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928822
that analysts’ forecast errors increase with EPU, as does the degree of forecast dispersion. Increased error and dispersion … heterogeneity in forecast quality across both analyst and firm characteristics establishes that forecast error and dispersion … sensitive versus policy neutral provide consistent evidence that analyst forecast errors and dispersion increase with EPU, even …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239675
Risk forecasting is crucial for informed investment decision-making. Moreover, the salience of investment risk increases during economically uncertain times. In this paper, we study how sell-side analysts form expectations of firm risk, under different macroeconomic conditions (low versus high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829616
This study examines the relationship between components of OCI and analysts' forecasting behaviour, being forecast … negatively associated with forecast accuracy and herding. We also find that available for sale (AFS) amounts are positively … associated with forecast accuracy, herding and analyst following. Together with prior evidence, our findings provide empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872055
earn low future returns composing of both immediate-forecast-revision responses and post-forecast-revision price drifts. We … than 60% of the analyst forecast revisions and 30% of the revision-related market responses …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251968
positively associated with analyst coverage, the size of forecast errors, as well as the extent of forecast dispersion … and both forecast accuracy and dispersion is stronger for firms in the resources and mining industries, and for longer … forecast horizons. Our results are consistent with heightened EPU being associated with a decline in firms’ information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355572
uncertainty, as reflected by greater timeliness with no loss in forecast accuracy. In contrast, analysts have greater difficulty … dealing with heightened market uncertainty, as both timeliness and forecast accuracy decline …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010250690
I investigate the dynamics of analyst forecast errors relative to economic policy uncertainty and find a significant … positive relation between economic policy uncertainty and analyst forecast errors. A doubling of economic policy uncertainty is … associated with a 4.29 percentage points increase in earnings (EPS) forecast errors, and the volatility and dispersion in analyst …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868071
We uncover a negative correlation between macroeconomic uncertainty and security analyst earning forecasts dispersion, and explain it through herding behavior bias of the analysts. We find that the herding firms, whose analysts suffer the herding bias, have greater firm-level uncertainty than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014257970
positively associated with forecast distributions that are more dispersed and exhibit stronger bimodal patterns, consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403974