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We present a stochastic simulation model for estimating forward-looking corporate probability of default and loss given default. We formulate the model in a discrete time frame, apply capital-budgeting techniques to define the relationships that identify the default condition, and solve the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023044
In this study we theoretically simulate default risk scenarios under various economic noises. We find that firms default more quickly with stronger economic shocks but simultaneously expose higher default probabilities during their deterioration, offering traders better visibility. When the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133441
Default probability plays a central role in the static tradeoff theory of capital structure. We directly test this … theory by regressing the probability of default on proxies for costs and benefits of debt. Contrary to predictions of the … theory, firms with higher bankruptcy costs, i.e., smaller firms and firms with lower asset tangibility, choose capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122204
Probability of default plays a central role in the static tradeoff theory of capital structure. We provide a direct … test of this theory by regressing the probability of default, measured by S&P credit ratings and Moody's KMV Expected …. Contrary to predictions of the theory, firms with high bankruptcy costs, that is smaller firms and firms with lower asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122234
set comprising the population of over eight million company year observations and 153,000 instances of insolvency covering … formal insolvency proceedings than other firms and how this varies over the economic cycle. Controlling for size, age, sector … and macro-economic conditions (base hazard) we find that private-equity backed buyouts are no more prone to insolvency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013123344
This article provides a generalized two-firm model of default correlation, based on the structural approach that incorporates interest rate risk. In most structural models default is driven by the firms' asset dynamics. In this article, a two-firm model of default is instead driven by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099258
We study the endogenous determination of corporate debt maturity in a setting with default risk. We assume that firms must access the bond market and they issue debt with a flexible structure (coupon, face value, and maturity). Initially, the firm is in a low growth/illiquid state that requires...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897314
IPO firms with high-powered CEO incentive contracts have lower failure rates in the aftermarket. Economically, an interquartile change in the distribution of CEO pay translates in a reduction of the failure risk probability by approximately 21%. The Pay Gap between the CEO and its subordinate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012898102
We build a dynamic model to link two empirical patterns:\ the negative failure probability-return relation (Campbell, Hilscher, and Szilagyi, 2008) and the positive distress risk premium-return relation (Friewald, Wagner, and Zechner, 2014). We show analytically and quantitatively that (i)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012065129
We document the negative effect of stock liquidity on default risk for a sample of 46 countries. We further find that default risk declines following the introduction of the Directive on Markets in Financial Instruments (MiFID)—an exogenous shock that increases liquidity. The effect of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012854783