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Polls and elections: strategic respondents and turnout implications
Luxen, Christina - 2020
This paper studies the effect of pre-election polls on the participation decision of citizens in a large, two …-candidate election, and the resulting incentives for the poll participants. Citizens have private values and voting is costly and … candidate wins the election almost surely, regardless of voters' posterior beliefs. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012270501
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Policy Inertia, Election Uncertainty and Incumbency Disadvantage of Political Parties
Chatterjee, Satyajit - 2019
election. We show that this fact can be explained by a combination of policy inertia and unpredictability in election outcomes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860682
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Aggregate Uncertainty in Runoff Elections
Solow, Benjamin - 2018
election, and a Condorcet losing candidate wins with positive probability. Finally, some candidates who reach the second round …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012921841
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Local Political Uncertainty, Family Control and Investment Behavior
Amore, Mario Daniele - 2020
Estimating difference-in-differences models on a comprehensive dataset of Italian companies, we provide novel insights into the literature on political uncertainty and firm investment. We first establish that local political uncertainty leads to declining investment. Next, we show that family...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012854922
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Policy uncertainty and manufacturing investment : evidence from U.S. State elections
Shelton, Cameron A.; Falk, Nathan - 2016 - This draft: March 2016
year of a gubernatorial election, the elasticity of investment to the eventual margin of victory is 0.027. Both the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451061
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Uncertainty Matters : Evidence from Close Elections
Redl, Chris - 2018
This paper uses a data-rich environment to produce direct econometric estimates of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty for 11 advanced nations. These indices exhibit significant independent variation from popular proxies. Using this new data we control for both first and second moment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920815
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Political selection when uncertainty is high
Baskaran, Thushyanthan; Hessami, Zohal; Khasanboev, … - 2022
Do voters place their trust in tried and tested leaders when uncertainty is high or do they prefer a new slate of leaders who are arguably more competent? To study this question, we make use of hand-collected data on 402,385 candidates who competed in open-list local council elections...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013347142
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Psychologically-based voting with uncertainty
Degan, Arianna; Li, Ming - 2014
We analyze a psychologically-based model of voter turnout in an election with common value and uncertainty. Our model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010418265
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Buying Voters with Uncertain Instrumental Preferences
Louis-Sidois, Charles - 2020
We study a vote buying setup where a committee votes on a proposal important to the vote buyer. We characterize the cheapest combination of bribes that guarantees the proposal's passing in different voting environments. We find that for both simultaneous and sequential votes, the vote buyer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833674
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Partisan Business Cycles Under Variable Election Dates
Heckelman, Jac C. - 2001
party will emerge victorious should an election occur. This electoral uncertainty affects the macroeconomy, where the size … the last election, and party popularity. Leftist governments are expected to sustain higher output levels throughout their … electoral term compared to rightwing governments, and the partisan differences will continue to increase until the next election …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014136353