We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...

A model of portfolio return dynamics is considered in which the price of risk is permitted to be heterogeneous. In doing this, a novel method is proposed that delivers improved out-of-sample forecasts of portfolio returns. The main innovation is the use of a set of predictors that account for...

We decompose the quadratic payoff on a stock into its loss and gain components and measure the premia associated with their fluctuations, called the loss and gain quadratic risk premium (QRP) respectively. The loss QRP interprets as the premium paid for downside risk hedging, while the gain QRP...

We decompose the quadratic payoff on a stock into its loss and gain components and measure the premia associated with their fluctuations, called the loss and gain quadratic risk premium (QRP) respectively. The loss QRP interprets as the premium paid for downside risk hedging, while the gain QRP...

We quantify disagreement about the economy with ex-ante measures of divergence of opinion among economic forecasters and investigate if economic disagreement has a significant impact on the cross-sectional pricing of individual stocks. We find a significant disagreement premium of 7.2% per...

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond...

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation...

The Asset pricing literature has produced hundreds of risk factor candidates aimed at explaining the cross-section of expected excess returns, although risk factors which are in fact capable of providing independent information remains an open question. Appling a sparse model, Kozak, Nagel, and...

This study examines whether investors’ attitudes toward ambiguity can explain cross-sectional stock returns by investigating the relationship between future stock returns and option-implied volatilities as well as implied third moments. We find that investors’ attitudes toward different...