I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that … extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they …

Studies of bond return predictability find a puzzling disparity between strong statistical evidence of return … accounting for important features of bond return models such as time varying parameters, volatility dynamics, and unspanned macro … risk-adjusted portfolio returns after accounting for estimation error and model uncertainty, as evidenced by the …

We find that interest rate variance risk premium (IRVRP) - the difference between implied and realized variances of … interest rates - is a strong predictor of U.S. Treasury bond returns of maturities ranging between one and ten years for return … horizons up to six months. IRVRP is not subsumed by other predictors such as forward rate spread or equity variance risk …

-based ex-post measures of macroeconomic risk. Inflation uncertainty is an important driver of bond premia, but the relation …This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the … forecasts appears a much less important driver of bond premia. …

risk factors. Risk factor correlation increases when investor sentiment worsens. This suggests that corporate bond … investors change their perception of risk factors, which results in higher risk factor correlation and finally higher bond … is most needed. We examine bond correlation using a broad sample of US corporate bonds. We find bond correlation to be …

Empirically testing a bond portfolio hedging model is usually carried out when proposing a new model or to compare … influences the testing outcome thus quantifying the model risk associated with these model features. The model risk measure …

not spanned by the current yield curve. The disaster risk factor delivers a counter cycle bond risk premium, and the … risk accounts for a sizable portion of variations in the time-varying bond risk premium …We propose a news-implied rare disaster risk indicator and study its predictive power on the returns of U.S. Treasury …