risk. The traditional actuarial approach -- the approach currently used by the Social Security Administration in generating … its most widely cited numbers -- ignores risk and instead simply discounts 'expected' future flows back to the present … using a risk-free rate. If benefits are risky and this risk is priced by the market, then actuarial estimates will differ …

-to-book to operating leverage, duration, exposure to investment-specific technology shocks, and analysts' risk ratings derive … types of cash flow risk and consumption risk exposure are due to the market-to-value component. Overall, our evidence casts …