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volatility and exhibit a pattern known as the volatility skew. We explain both facts using a model that can also account for the … mean and volatility of equity returns. Our model assumes a small risk of economic disaster that is calibrated based on … to the model's ability both to match equity volatility and to reconcile option prices with macroeconomic data on disaster …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856361
We study the pricing of contracts in fixed income markets in the presence of volatility uncertainty. We consider an … arbitrage-free bond market under volatility uncertainty. The uncertainty about the volatility is modeled by a G-Brownian motion … traditional models with the highest and lowest possible volatility. Due to these pricing formulas, the model naturally exhibits …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012175590
We introduce Implied Volatility Duration (IVD) as a new measure for the timing of uncertainty resolution, with a high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012157194
We show how to set up a forward rate model in the presence of volatility uncertainty by using the theory of G …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009895
We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751173
We examine whether the option market leads the stock market with respect to positive in addition to negative price discovery. We document that out-of-themoney (OTM) option prices, which determine the Risk-Neutral Skewness (RNS) of the underlying stock return's distribution, can embed positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011872403
It is shown how to construct an arbitrage-free short rate model under uncertainty about the drift and the volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011891263
This paper uses the method developed by Bollerslev and Todorov (2011b) to estimate risk premia for extreme events for the US and the German stock markets. The method extracts jump tail measures from high-frequency futures price data and from options data. In a second step, jump tail...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010249730
This paper proposes an option pricing model which can estimate the market’s expected return and the market’s uncertainty of this return while complying with various complex characteristics of real-world markets. First, it is proposed that the market is not homogenous; the market is made up...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350096
and volatility risk in the dynamics of asset value in debt rollover models. Using an innovative theoretical approach we … values from empirical studies that volatility risk, together with deteriorating bond market liquidity, decrease both debt and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973387