In the paper we present the application of risk neutral measure estimation in the analysis of the index WIG20 from Polish stock market. The risk neutral measure is calculated from the process of the options on that index. We assume that risk neutral measure is the mixture of lognormal...

Option prices embed predictive content for the outcomes of pending mergers and acquisitions. This is particularly important in merger arbitrage, where deal failure is a key risk. In this paper, I propose a dynamic asset pricing model that exploits the joint information in target stock and option...