basis of available information at the time the budget is prepared; we find that the forecast error based is six times … greater than the error based on ex-post projection. These results imply that the forecast error predominantly reflects … are even more limited — based only on lagged tax revenues and a GDP growth forecast — provide less-accurate projections …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …

standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation … forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers. …