This paper proposes a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregression with factor stochastic volatility to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of international uncertainty shocks in G7 countries. The curse of dimensionality is addressed by means of a global-local shrinkage prior that mimics...

Our results uncover a so far undocumented ability of the interbank market to distinguish between banks of different quality in times of aggregate distress. We show empirical evidence that during the 2007 financial crisis the inability of some banks to roll over their interbank debt was not due...

We investigate the dynamics of the relationship between returns and extreme downside risk in different states of the market by combining the framework of Bali, Demirtas, and Levy (2009) with a Markov switching mechanism. We show that the risk-return relationship identified by Bali, Demirtas, and...

I develop a framework of the build-up and outbreak of financial crises in an asymmetric information setting. In equilibrium, two distinct economic states arise endogenously: normal times – periods of modest investment, and booms – periods of expansionary investment. Normal times occur when...

We investigate the dynamics of the relationship between returns and extreme downside risk in different states of the market by combining the framework of Bali, Demirtas, and Levy (2009) with a Markov switching mechanism. We show that the risk-return relationship identified by Bali, Demirtas, and...

I use the global crisis of 1914 as a window onto the phenomenon of investor reaction to complex news — such as sudden political upheaval. Based on a novel database of all stocks traded on the NYSE during 1914, along with “real-time” news accounts from major newspapers, I show that NYSE...

Repurchase agreements ("repos") play a significant role in global credit market activity. Therefore, the individual decisions of repo market participants can weigh heavily on the broader economy. In order to analyze the decisions of these participants, our framework studies security repurchase...

We formalize the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk. Households' desire to hedge against price volatility can generate price volatility in equilibrium, even absent fundamental risk. Fearing that asset prices may fall, risk-averse households demand safe assets...

Various methods and models can quantify risks and try to predict future correlations. However, the flaw with any given financial model is that certain assumptions must be made, and when the market deviates too much from these assumptions, then the model falls apart. Under traditional valuation...

We present a framework for measuring the evolution of risks to financial stability over the financial cycle, which we apply to the United Kingdom. We identify 29 indicators of financial stability risk, drawing from the literature on early warning indicators of banking crises. We normalise and...