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Complexity and monetary policy
Orphanides, Athanasios; Wieland, Volker - 2012
model averaging in policy design. Interestingly, a simple difference rule with the same coefficients on inflation and output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010392194
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NAIRU Uncertainty and Nonlinear Policy Rules
Meyer, Laurence H.; Swanson, Eric T.; Wieland, Volker - 2001
The Federal Reserve allowed unemployment to fall substantially in the late 1990s, to a level well below earlier estimates of the NAIRU, without a corresponding tightening of monetary policy. In addition, Meyer (1999) has suggested that episodes of heightened uncertainty about the NAIRU may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014137888
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Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty
Levin, Andrew T.; Wieland, Volker; Williams, John C. - 1999
output-inflation volatility frontier of each model for alternative specifications of the interest rate rule, subject to an …-difference of the federal funds rate responds to the current output gap and the deviation of the one-year average inflation rate … complicated rules (i.e., rules that respond to a larger number of variables and/or additional lags of output and inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014202911
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Designing Optimal Macroeconomic Policy Rules Under Parameter Uncertainty : A Stochastic Dominance Approach
Górajski, Mariusz; Kuchta, Zbigniew - 2021
rule that reacts to inflation and the output gap, with an interest rate smoothing mechanism, minimises the welfare loss for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013213959
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Model Uncertainty and Monetary Policy
Dennis, Richard - 2008
expectations operator that, relative to rational expectations, assigns greater probability to extreme inflation and consumption … outcomes. Second, the central bank's skepticism about its model causes it to move forcefully to stabilize inflation following …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012726361
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Complexity and monetary policy
Orphanides, Athanasios; Wieland, Volker - 2012
model averaging in policy design. Interestingly, a simple difference rule with the same coefficients on inflation and output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009622453
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A new comparative approach to macroeconomic modeling and policy analysis
Wieland, Volker; Cwik, Tobias; Müller, Gernot J.; … - 2012
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the state of macroeconomicmodeling and the use of macroeconomic models in policy analysis has come under heavy criticism. Macroeconomists in academia and policy institutions have been blamed for relying too much on a particular class of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391307
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Dealing with Uncertainty : Robust Rules in Monetary Policy
Demertzis, Maria - 2011
We argue that in seeking to insure against model uncertainty, monetary policy makers are often ready to trade ex-post performance for greater certainty in the outcome. They thus look for rules that although not optimal ex post, have certain properties that qualify them as robust. We apply first,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756968
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Efficient Simple Policy Rules and the Implications of Potential Output Uncertainty
Hunt, Ben; Drew, Aaron - 2003
deterioration is less pronounced for rules that use forecasts of inflation rather than just contemporaneous inflation. Under the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014112608
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Uncertainty and Simple Monetary Policy Rules
Hall, Simon; Salmon, Chris; Yates, Anthony; Batini, … - 1999
This paper reports an investigation of the effects of additive and multiplicative uncertainty upon the stabilization properties of a simple base money rule for monetary policy. Using a five-equation empirical model of the United Kingdom, it is shown that changes in the extent of additive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014185688