All too often, the concept of risk-neutral probabilities in mathematical finance is poorly explained, and misleading statements are made. The aim of this paper is to provide an intuitive understanding of risk-neutral probabilities, and to explain in an easily accessible manner how they can be...

Property-casualty (P&C) insurers are exposed to rare but severe natural disasters. This paper analyzes the relation between catastrophe risk and the implied volatility smile of insurance stock options. We find that the slope is significantly steeper compared to non-financials and other financial...

This paper proposes a risk measure, based on first-passage probability, which reflects intra-horizon risk in jump models with finite or infinite jump activity. Our empirical investigation shows, first, that the proposed risk measure consistently exceeds the benchmark Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second,...

We investigate the effect of including variance derivatives as calibration and hedging instruments for pricing and hedging exotic structures. This is studied empirically using market data for SPX and VIX derivatives applied in a stochastic volatility jump diffusion model

Asymmetric volatility concerns the relation of returns to future expected volatility. Much is known from option prices about the marginal risk-neutral distributions of S&P 500 returns and of relative changes in future expected volatility (VIX). While the bivariate risk-neutral distribution...

Risk premia are related to price probability ratios or for continuous time pure jump processes the ratios of jump arrival rates under the pricing and physical measures. The variance gamma model is employed to synthesize densities with risk premia seen as the ratio of the three parameters. The...

We investigate the effects of return jumps on option bid-ask spreads measured in implied volatility. To explain bid-ask spread quoting behavior, we construct a general model with market makers trading in an incomplete market in which a Bernoulli-type jump could occur. Following a numerical...

We propose a parsimonious general equilibrium extension of the Black-Scholes economy that helps clarify how options' prices, expected returns, risk exposure, and optimal exercise policies respond to variations in the risk exposure of the underlying asset. The model allows one to separate the...

This paper presents a new robust predictor for option returns: the uncertainty of put-call parity violation (VVS). We find that the delta-hedged equity option return decreases monotonically with VVS. Although VVS is highly correlated with the classical uncertainty and limit-to-arbitrage...