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We find that interest rate variance risk premium (IRVRP) - the difference between implied and realized variances of interest rates - is a strong predictor of U.S. Treasury bond returns of maturities ranging between one and ten years for return horizons up to six months. IRVRP is not subsumed by...
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In this paper, we aim at constructing a global risk model using the term structure from major bond-issuing countries. The goal is twofold: first this allows quantifying global interest rate risk (level, slope and curvature effects), providing insights on global risks at play. Secondly, such...
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We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users’ demand for and constrained … intermediaries’ supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital … Financial Crisis when swap spreads turned negative and that this variable predicts the excess returns on swap spread trades …
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This paper asks a few key questions relevant for active risk parity portfolio construction. Given the dynamic nature of financial markets, especially in the aftermath of the financial crisis, we believe systematically answering these questions within a transparent conceptual framework is...
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