investments decrease by 4.36% in parliamentary election years. Moreover, investment responses to electoral shocks differ markedly … resume in post-election years. The electoral effect results in a net loss in investment over the election cycle …

election. We show that this fact can be explained by a combination of policy inertia and unpredictability in election outcomes …

election, and a Condorcet losing candidate wins with positive probability. Finally, some candidates who reach the second round …

party will emerge victorious should an election occur. This electoral uncertainty affects the macroeconomy, where the size … the last election, and party popularity. Leftist governments are expected to sustain higher output levels throughout their … electoral term compared to rightwing governments, and the partisan differences will continue to increase until the next election …

. Systematic risk should increase (decrease) as the chances of a Democrat (Republican) winning an election improve. At the same … presidential candidate, Barack Obama, during the 2008 presidential election. We find that a 1-percentage point increase in the … reduces the probability that the Democratic candidate will win an upcoming election …

year of a gubernatorial election, the elasticity of investment to the eventual margin of victory is 0.027. Both the …