This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...

Since the Fall of 2008, out-of-the money puts on high interest rate currencies have become significantly more expensive than out-of-the-money calls, suggesting a large crash risk of those currencies. To evaluate crash risk precisely, we propose a parsimonious structural model that includes both...

I identify a global currency skewness risk factor. Currency portfolios that have higher average excess returns co-vary more positively with this risk factor. They suffer losses in bad times for currency investors when high interest rate investment currencies have a greater tendency to depreciate...

In this paper, we propose an unified econometric strategy to revisit the predictive contentof interest rates for exchange rate returns. The novelty of our approach is to take into account dependencies of higher orders by allowing for a time-varying asymmetry componentin the distribution of...

We identify crucial events during the European sovereign debt crisis and investigate their impact on the euro currency. In particular, we analyze how specific announcements related to vulnerable Eurozone member states, European Central Bank (ECB) actions, and credit rating downgrades affect the...

We identify crucial events during the European sovereign debt crisis and investigate their impact on the euro currency. In particular, we analyse how specific announcements related to vulnerable Eurozone member states, European Central Bank (ECB) actions, and credit rating downgrades affect the...

We quantify crash risk in currency returns. To accomplish this task, we develop and estimate an empirical model of exchange rate dynamics using daily data for four currencies relative to the US dollar: the Australian dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen. The model...

The increasing crypto-stock comovement has spurred concerns over digital assets’ ripple effects and systemic risks. We closely examine this comovement and report two findings. First, the crypto-stock correlation hovered around zero before March 2020 but increased strikingly after. This shift...

The crypto market has experienced several serious crises in recent years, the most contemporary being the collapse of Terra and then FTX. Despite common belief that these could imply the end of the crypto era, our analysis highlights no significant increases and decreases in systemic risk and...

We study the interactions between cryptocurrencies, stock markets, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) by means of a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) framework. We rely on two market factors to model the comovements of returns within cryptocurrencies and stock markets. We...